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Northern Ireland 2025 Outlook

Northern Ireland: 2025 Outlook

A turning point?

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Improved macroeconomic stability – at both the national level and locally – should hopefully result in more positive business sentiment and increased development, growth and investment into the region.

John Mathers

Head of Corporate Banking, Northern Ireland

Investing in stability

Compared to the challenges experienced during the last eight years or so, I’m optimistic that 2025 is going to herald more stability and confidence in the economy – particularly with normalised inflation levels and borrowing costs expected to reduce further through the year. This should provide a better investment environment, a re-evaluation of investment plans, and an uptick in demand for investment. Of course, this will all depend on how ongoing global geopolitical risks play out.

I’m hearing a sense of hope from many of our clients across Northern Ireland that the restoration of local government will drive change, contributing to a better business environment. I expect to see further efforts to promote the advantages of doing business in Northern Ireland, particularly given its unique role as a gateway between the UK and EU and the associated benefits for businesses located here.

What’s more, some exciting new initiatives – like the Factory of the Future currently being developed by the Advanced Manufacturing Innovation Centre1 as part of the Belfast City Deal – could help cement Northern Ireland’s position as a centre of excellence, and drive development in both our established and evolving industries.

Banking on change

The restored government’s nine key priorities outlined in its draft programme “Our Plan: Doing What Matters Most”2 in September 2024 suggest a more aligned outlook and will hopefully result in refreshed policies and strategic imperatives to support the economy’s growth prospects. It will be important to see how the aspirations set out in that document translate into action.

For example, conversations with clients have made it clear that the region’s infrastructure, particularly water infrastructure, continues to be a significant issue. Improving Northern Ireland’s infrastructure across energy, water and transport needs to be a key focus for the government in the coming years, and businesses are eager to see solutions.

Hopefully future policy interventions, including those that bring about public sector reform, will help to boost business confidence and encourage increased investment into the wider economy.

As inflation and interest rates continue to reduce, and the local government re-ignites economic policies and initiatives, I expect to see businesses revisiting investment plans and a greater demand for funding.

John Mathers

Head of Corporate Banking, Northern Ireland

Skilling up for success

Although a significant issue for the whole country, the skills, recruitment and retention dilemma continue to be a particularly acute challenge in Northern Ireland. In our recent research carried out with The Times, businesses in the region said staff recruitment and retention is their biggest challenge, and identified ‘developing staff skills to meet future needs’ as a key factor for growth.3

In my opinion, several factors – the impact of Brexit and the pandemic, and an extended period without a functioning local government – have all contributed to this challenge. Hopefully we will see more industry-led initiatives to help alleviate the skills gap. The Manufacturing and Engineering Growth and Advancement (MEGA) network’s apprenticeship programme is a good example of how these initiatives can encourage businesses and tertiary education institutions to collaborate so that people can obtain degree qualifications while working and gain great training and experience.

It will be interesting to see how the restored government’s proposals for education and skills development mature into policies and action – and possibly even support for the successful initiatives already in place.

Key takeaways

Seize the moment

With confidence and stability improving, now may be as good a time as any to make use of the support and funding available for businesses to revisit and realise some of their growth ambitions.

Embrace automation

Given the challenges associated with recruitment and keeping costs under control, businesses may want to consider what role automation could best play in their operations and development plans.

Invest in your people

Investing in your organisation’s workforce and skills – and doing everything possible to recruit and retain the best talent – could be key to improving productivity and staying ahead in a competitive jobs market.

£22bn Business Prosperity Fund

If you’re looking to unlock growth opportunities to move your business forward, our £22bn Business Prosperity Fund is available through some of our borrowing and refinancing options. See how we could work together to achieve your ambitions and strengthen the UK economy. Subject to normal lending assessment, status and application. Terms and conditions apply.

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